Decentralized Prediction Market Protocol with Autonomy

Predictpool is a decentralized prediction market protocol built on parimutuel pools. Users stake collateral into outcome pools during a defined window. Pool ratios determine implied odds. Positions are typically held until resolution. After the event resolves, winners claim payouts proportionally based on their stake, minus a protocol fee. Funds remain in smart contract escrow and settlement is deterministic.

The on chain core is kept small and auditable by separating market specification, market operation, and market resolution. Governance is treated as a security risk, so upgrades are constrained, time locked, and documented.

Outcome resolution follows a phased oracle model. Initial markets use a designated resolver that must reference pre committed sources and apply explicit invalidation rules. Later phases transition to a dispute based oracle using proposer and challenger bonds, dispute windows, escalation rules, and predefined fallbacks such as invalid markets with refunds when resolution is ambiguous.

Market quality depends on clear questions and visible context. Interfaces show pool depth, recent inflow, concentration, time remaining, and dispute status so implied odds are not misread, especially in thin markets.

Autonomous agents draft markets, detect ambiguity and duplicates, monitor manipulation and liquidity anomalies, collect evidence, and submit resolution proposals. Resolution is executed by the protocol's predefined rules, with agents operating inside those constraints. The platform is being built to become completely autonomous over time, with human involvement optional and mainly limited to exceptional cases such as protocol upgrades or unresolved disputes.

Accountability is enforced through measurement. The protocol publishes resolution quality and forecasting accuracy metrics, including calibration and proper scoring rules, and exposes open data for independent evaluation.